The US faces a one-in-four chance of being hit by a Category 4 or 5 hurricane this year despite forecasts pointing to a quieter overall Atlantic storm season.
This, coupled with the El Niño conditions, could change some risk profiles, particularly affect insurance-linked securities (ILS) returns, and lead to a need for portfolio repositioning for insurers.
The hurricane predictions were according to new analysis from MS Amlin, which said that its forecast estimated a 27% probability of at least one Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane making landfall during the 2026 season.
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