New El Niño warnings say there are possible disruptions to supply chains and knock-on effects on global trade.
The scale of the event, and its timing during the current geopolitical uncertainty, is likely to create more effect than usual. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially declared an El Niño on June 11, which will impact weather patterns across the globe.
NOAA's latest forecast indicates the current El Niño is expected to strengthen into the 2026–2027 winter season, with a projected peak between November and January.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Centre also estimated that there is a greater than 60% probability that the current El Niño will become "very strong", based on a compilation of statistical and physical model forecasts.
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