This article was produced by Wellington Management as part of their valued industry partnership with Insurance Investor.
The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional or accredited investors only.
Key points:
- We expect a modest, near-trend US expansion supported by AI-related investment, infrastructure spending, and resilient corporate profits, but with growth increasingly concentrated and inflation risks elevated by energy prices, tariffs, and supply chain pressures.
- We believe insurers should maintain a moderately constructive but selective risk posture, emphasising dependable income, downside resilience, liquidity, and reinvestment flexibility rather than adding broad credit beta at tight spreads.
- Within fixed income, we favour securitised credit, particularly senior collateralised loan obligations (CLOs), alongside selective front-end and intermediate investment-grade corporates, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and high-quality taxable municipals; evolving NAIC rules have the potential to further improve the relative capital efficiency of senior CLO tranches.
- Across other asset classes, we are neutral on US equities as strong earnings are balanced by rising issuance and pockets of exuberance, favour emerging market equities relative to Europe, and have moved to neutral on gold.
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