This article was produced by BNP Paribas Asset Management as part of their valued industry partnership with Insurance Investor.
Across regions, diverging paths mark the outlook:
In Europe, the economy looks set to regain momentum, led by reduced policy uncertainty and a major fiscal reset in Germany, which has been supported by increased infrastructure and defence spending.
Across the Atlantic, the US is navigating policy crosscurrents in a complex macroeconomic environment shaped by new policy directions, including import tariffs and a looser fiscal stance.
In Asia, the focus looks set to remain on medium-term prospects for growth and the extent of any rebalancing away from investment-driven growth.
Most years contain a surprise or two. While they usually have a temporary or relatively minor impact on a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds, surprises such as the onset of the Covid pandemic can have massive effects on even a well-diversified portfolio.
While 2026 could spring a surprise of that magnitude, perhaps driven by increasingly complex geopolitics, there are several scenarios that are at least plausible in the coming year.
BNP Paribas Asset Management consider four scenarios and proposes diversification strategies that could help improve an investor’s risk-adjusted returns should such an environment emerge.
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