@Wellington Management.
Tim Antonelli, CAIA, CFA, FRM, SCR, Head of Insurance Multi-Asset Strategy
The views expressed are those of the author at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.
We knew 2024 would be marked by a seemingly unprecedented number of global elections, with 64 countries and the European Union (EU) all facing potential changes, representing more than half of the world population. And as of July 1, more than one billion people had already voted, per Time.
With the increase in political uncertainty can come a corresponding bout of market volatility, in particular within surplus assets. That being said, political noise has been largely offset by supportive economic fundamentals. It’s a fool’s errand to predict election outcomes, so I continue to anchor my outlook to a view that the fundamental backdrop of decent growth, moderating inflation, and credible monetary policy has staying power and is bullish for surplus assets despite high valuations.
I recognise that growth is slowing and there is a bit more slack in the labour market. And while services inflation remains sticky, and specifically shelter in the US, the path forward is pointing downward. These factors leave the US Federal Reserve in a position to ease eventually, which should be supportive of bond and equity markets alike. All this lines up for what may be a promising summer break for insurance Chief Investment Officers (or a winter break for those in the southern hemisphere).
Drilling down into some specifics….
