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Cyber incidents rank as the top global risk for 2026, followed by the closely linked peril of artificial intelligence (AI), which climbs from tenth place last year. This is according to the Allianz Risk Barometer released yesterday.
Both cyber and AI now rank as top five risks in every region, and almost all the industry sectors analysed in this year’s survey.
Business interruption, which includes supply chain disruption, has dropped slightly to third, having ranked either first or second in every Risk Barometer for the past 15 years.
“It remains a key concern at a time when operations and supply chains are under unprecedented pressure from a combination of geopolitical, digital and climate change-related risks – all of which feature in this year’s top 10 global concerns,” said Allianz.
The rise of AI is an opportunity for investment portfolios for insurers, with many interested in the progress of the technology, particularly through data centres as an asset class, for instance. However, reputational and operational risks abound with its use as well, which could, some argue, outweigh positives.
The report said that the impact of geopolitical tensions, extreme weather events, and technological innovation is likely to intensify in the years ahead.
“As a result, businesses large and small will need to double down on their efforts to bolster resilience,” it said. “However, just 3% of respondents in this year’s survey view their supply chains as “very resilient”.”
“AI is the big mover. Its evolution and adoption are reshaping the risk landscape, making it a standout risk for businesses worldwide."
Filling out the top ten were changes in legislation and regulation in fourth place, then natural catastrophes, climate change, political risk and violence, macroeconomic developments, fire/explosion, and market developments.
“AI is the big mover,” explains Michael Bruch, Global Head of Risk Consulting Advisory Services, Allianz Commercial. “Its evolution and adoption are reshaping the risk landscape, making it a standout risk for businesses worldwide. Yet in many ways, it could be seen as just another risk to add to the growing list of challenges for businesses.”
Bruch said that AI’s transformative potential means it cannot be underestimated. As the results show, many of the top perils are interconnected and highly complex risks that will impact every organisation in 2026.
“Those businesses that can develop risk management and resilience strategies – that are forward-looking, strategic and functional, and agile enough to adapt to rapid change – will be best placed to capture opportunities presented by technologies and changes in geopolitical and societal trends.”
In recent days, the UK government has been involved in a spat with X's owner, Elon Musk, over the image generation tool on his AI chatbot, Grok. Elsewhere, numerous governments are pushing for more rules and guidelines around the use of AI.
“In many cases, adoption is moving faster than governance, regulation, and workforce readiness can keep up,” said Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist, Allianz.
As mentioned previously, AI is an opportunity for investors in areas such as data centres, but it doesn’t come without risks.
However, Allianz said, it could change society and business in the coming years. The societal change aspect could, in fact, be the bigger issue, with many seeing rapid technological advancements as weakening established social norms, such as AI’s effect on graduate job opportunities.
"Organisations must embed horizon scanning and stress testing into their risk frameworks to anticipate these accelerations before they become systemic threats.”
Other risks include AI washing, as well as a potential bubble in the market and overuse.
“Technology moves at lightspeed. A year ago, AI was barely in the top 10 risks in the Risk Barometer, and today it ranks second,” said Daniel Muller, Head of Emerging Risk Trends, Allianz Commercial. “AI is not the only emerging technology with the potential to disrupt. Technology risks can escalate rapidly, so organisations must embed horizon scanning and stress testing into their risk frameworks to anticipate these accelerations before they become systemic threats.”
Muller also highlighted the rapid emergence of quantum computing, a technology that could unlock entirely new forms of cyberattacks and undermine encryption standards. Almost a fifth of Risk Barometer respondents said they feared a breakthrough in quantum computing that renders current encryption obsolete, when quizzed about the most plausible “black swan” or “perfect storm” scenarios that could occur in the next five years.
However, faster, more powerful computing could also create exciting opportunities for the automotive industry, chemicals, finance and life sciences, among others. According to McKinsey, surging investment and faster-than-expected innovation could propel the quantum computing market to $100 billion within a decade.
